TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday 24 December 2016
Next update: Saturday Morning, 24 December 2016
|Current Status and Outlook||
NOCK-TEN (NINA) now a Typhoon (TY) as it maintains its track and speed across the Central Philippine Sea. It is likely to affect and bring Stormy Weather across the northern portions of Eastern Visayas, the Bicol Region and Southern Quezon beginning Christmas Day through Monday (Dec 26).
This typhoon is expected to continue moving west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a decreased speed of 16 km/hr and wlll continue to intensify.
Important Note: Nock-Ten (Nina) is comparable in track and strength of Typhoon Jean which crossed the Bicol Region on December 25, 1947.
|Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)?||As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 23…1500 GMT. The eye was located over the middlie part of Central Philippine Sea (near 12.8N 130.3E), about 716 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay or 549 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.|
|How strong is it?||Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 145 kph|
|Where is it heading?||It was moving West-Northwest @ 23 kph, towards the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea.|
|Potential Landfall Area(s)||Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur or Camarines Norte) on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 60-80%.|
|What Philippine areas will be most affected?*
*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
|:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon – beginning Sunday, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday (Dec 26).|
|Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+||:: Bicol Region and Northern Samar – beginning late-Saturday evening through Christmas Day (Dec 25).
+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces.
|3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**||SATURDAY EVENING: Attains its peak strength as it continues to move generally west-northwest across the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea…about 324 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [8PM DEC 24: 13.6N 127.2E @ 200kph].Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken after making landfall over Catanduanes, starts to traverse Camarines Sur on a westerlty track…about 24 km east-southeast of Caramoan, Catanduanes[8PM DEC 25: 13.7N 124.0E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it weakens further…about 206 km west of Metro Manila [8PM DEC 26: 14.3N 119.1E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
|Other Storm Info||
> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 530 km (Small)
> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center.
|Additional Distances||Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Dec 23, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.8º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 619 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 665 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 683 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 774 km ESE of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 1012 km ESE of Metro Manila
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