Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 004



Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Friday 23 December 2016
Next update: Saturday Early Morning,  24 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) has slowed down while gaining strength over the Central Philippine Sea. It is likely to affect and bring Stormy Weather across the northern portions of Eastern Visayas the Bicol Region and Southern Quezon beginning Christmas Day through Monday (Dec 26).

This storm is expected to continue moving west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr, and could become a Typhoon tonight.

Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 23…0900 GMT. The center was located over the mid-southern part of Central Philippine Sea (near 12.4N 131.5E), about 850 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay or 659 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 105 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur or Camarines Norte) on the late-evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 60-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday Late Afternoon, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday (Dec 26).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Typhoon classification as it continues to move west-northwest across the middle part of Central Philippine Sea…about 421 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM DEC 24: 13.7N 128.1E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Still gaining strength as it starts to turn westward, approaching the East Coast of Catanduanes…about 130 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM DEC 25: 13.7N 125.4E @ 180kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the southern coast of Batangas as it loses strength after crossing the central part of the Bicol Regiona and Bondoc Peninsula (Southern Quezon)…about 22 km south of Batangas City, Batangas [2PM DEC 26: 13.6N 121.0E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Dec 23, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.4º N Lat 131.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 749 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 800 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 816 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 909 km ESE of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 1148 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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