Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 003



Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 23 December 2016
Next update: Friday Evening,  23 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (NINA) has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a west-northwesterly track over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. It is likely to affect Eastern Visayas especially the northern portions and Bicol Region on Christmas Day.

This storm is expected to continue moving west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 20 km/hr, and could become a Typhoon. 

Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 23…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern part of Central the Philippine Sea (near 11.9N 132.6E), about 972 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay or 782 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 9kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 37 kph, towards the southeastern part of Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Bicol Region (most likely along the provinces of Catanduanes, Camarines Sur or Camarines Norte) on Christmas Day, Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Bicol Region and Southern Quezon  beginning Sunday Morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday (Dec 26).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** SATURDAY MORNING: Gains further strength as a Tyhoon while continue moving west-northwest towards the middle part of Central Philippine Sea…about 486 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM DEC 24: 13.2N 129.0E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a strong Typhoon as it slows down and changes its track towards the west…about 216 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM DEC 25: 13.6N 126.2E @ 180kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it continues to move westerly across Northern Bicol through Southern Quezon…about 43 km south-southwest of Calauag, Quezon [8AM DEC 26: 13.7N 122.2E @ 170kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 585 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Dec 23, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.9º N Lat 132.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 868 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 752 km ENE of Siargao Island Resort
Distance 3: 836 km E of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 4: 1039 km ESE of Naga City, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 1290 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines


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