Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 11

TROPICAL STORM SANBA (BASYANG) UPDATE NO. 11

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its intensity after making landfall over the southern coast of Bohol. The storm is expected to traverse westward towards Southern Cebu and Southern Negros Province tonight between 7-8 pm.

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) and shall move westward at a speed of 27 km/h. Its center shall be over the western part of Sulu Sea or near the eastern coast of Central Palawan by Wednesday afternoon (Feb 14).

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring heavy to extreme rains with thunderstorms across MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Northwestern Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)? As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 13…0900 GMT. The center was located near the southwestern coast of Bohol Sea (near 9.6N 124.0E), about 16 km east-southeast of Tagbilaran City, Bohol or 75 km south-southeast of Talisay City, Cebu.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West @ 20 kph, towards Cebu-Negros Province Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along the eastern coast of Southern Cebu this evening between 7-8 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>>MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Northwestern Mindanao – Today through Wednesday morning (Feb 14). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after crossing the landmass of Southern Visayas, emerges over western part of the Sulu Sea or near the eastern coast of Central Palawan…about 97 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Feb 14: 9.1N 118.9E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the West Philippines Sea after crossing Central Palawan, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility…about 447 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Feb 15: 10.0N 114.7E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 635 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Tue February 13, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.6º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 83 km ENE of Dumaguete  City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 96 km E of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 3: 105 km S of Danao City, Cebu
Distance 4: 111 km SW of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 5: 639 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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