Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 05

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TROPICAL STORM SANBA (BASYANG) UPDATE NO. 05

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) slows down as it moved west-northwestward during the past 6 hours. It is expected to make landfall over Northeastern Mindanao by Tuesday morning (Feb 13).  Its western outer rainbands are currently affecting Eastern Mindanao. 

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-northwestward at an increased forward speed of 27 km/h over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea.

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, & Eastern Luzon; Bicol Region; Visayas & Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 12…2100 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.5N 132.5E), about 689 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 720 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Northeastern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by Tuesday morning (Feb 13) between 7-8am, with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern & Northern Mindanao – Today through Tuesday (Feb 13). 


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves WNW across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, prepares to make landfall over Northeastern Mindanao…about 138 km ENE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Feb 13: 8.5N 127.5E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over Sulu Sea after traversing the landmass of Northeastern Mindanao and the southern portions Central Visayas, slightly weakens…about 178 km WSW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [2AM Feb 14: 9.1N 121.0E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength after crossing the southern part of Central Palawan, emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it approaches the Kalayaan Island Group…about 234 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 15: 9.5N 116.7E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 690 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon February 12, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.5º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 752 km E of Panabo  City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 778 km E of Davao City City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 3: 787 km ESE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 808 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1475 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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