Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 18





Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has been relocated north of its previous position and has started to track westward slowly. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity and shall move west to west-northwestward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr.  The center is forecast to cross Southern Palawan around midnight Friday (Feb 16) and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by Friday morning . 

TD SANBA (BASYANG) and its Trough will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan including the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 15…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.8N 119.2E), about 245 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 420 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Quasi-Stationary, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Bataraza, Southern Palawan around midnight tonight between 12-1 am, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday morning (Feb 16). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 322 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 16: 8.8N 116.1E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR while passing along the Southern Spratly Islands…about 689 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 17: 8.9N 112.6E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.8º N Lat 119.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 442 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 462 km W of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 466 km W of Pagadian City, Zamboanga Del Sur
Distance 4: 475 km WSW of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 780 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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