Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 16


Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its intensity as it becomes quasi-stationary over the southern part of the Sulu Sea in the past 6 hours. It threatens to make landfall over the northern tip of Borneo by Thursday morning (Feb 15). Its rainbands are currently affecting Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity as it re-emerges over the West Philippine Sea after its landfall over the northern tip of Borneo. It will move west-northwestward at a forward speed of 16 km/hr. 

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)? As of 11:00 PM PhT today, February 14…1500 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 6.9N 118.9E), about 341 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 475 km west of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Quasi-Stationary, towards Northern Borneo.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Thursday afternoon (Feb 15). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EVENING: Maintains its intensity as it re-emerges over the West Philippine Sea or near the southwestern edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after its landfall over the northern tip of Borneo…about 405 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 15: 7.7N 115.9E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 475 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed February 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 6.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 511 km WSW of Pagadian City, Zamboanga Del Sur
Distance 2: 521 km WSW of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 533 km WSW of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 549 km SW of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 885 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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