Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 13





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has weakened further as it moved west-southwestward during the past six hours across the Sulu Sea.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to resume its westerly movement at a forward speed of 21 kph and shall cross Southern Palawan around midnight (12am Feb 15). It will emerge over the West Philippine Sea by early Thursday morning while re-intensifying into a Tropical Storm.

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 14…2100 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the Sulu Sea (near 8.4N 121.2E), about 317 km southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 204 km southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West-Southwest @ 30 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Southern Palawan around midnight tomorrow (Feb 15) between 12-1 am, with a Medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan – Today through Thursday early morning (Feb 15). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while emerging over the West Philippine Sea, very near the coast of Southern Palawan…about 224 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 15: 8.7N 117.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a downgraded Tropical Depression (TD) over the South China Sea…about 582 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 9.5N 113.5E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed February 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.4º N Lat 121.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 218 km NNW of Lamitan  City, Basilan
Distance 2: 235 km W of Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 249 km WSW of Bais  City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 254 km WNW of Pagadian  City, Zamboanga Del Sur
Distance 5: 687 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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