Tropical Depression 21W (MARING) Update Number 001





Issued at: 10:30 AM PhT (02:30 GMT) Tuesday 12 September 2017
Next update: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 September 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The small but strong disturbance (LPA) along Lamon Bay has strengthened into Tropical Depression (TD) 21W [MARING]…will cross Metro Manila and nearby provinces this afternoon, between 1:00 to 3:00 pm.  Heavy to extreme rainfall expected within the day across Southern Tagalog Provinces.

This depression is expected to move generally west-northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 15 km/hr, and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by Wednesday morning (Sept 13). 21W (MARING) could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by Wednesday afternoon.

*Residents are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is 21W (MARING)? As of 7:00 AM PhT today, September 12…2300 GMT.  The center was located over Lamon Bay (near 14.6N 122.0E), about 73 km north-northeast of Tayabas City, Quezon or 100 km east of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West-Southwest @ 15 kph, towards Northern Quezon-Metro Manila Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :::: Along the Coast of Northern Quezon, between the Towns of Mauban and Infanta at approx. 10am-12pm today, with a High Strike Probability of 95-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Zambales after crossing Pampanga and Zambales…about 83 km wesst-southwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 13: 15.8N 119.3E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responcsibility (PAR) as it strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS). while over the South China Sea..about 435 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 14: 17.0N 116.0E @ 190kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 510 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Tue September 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.6º N Lat 122.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 94 km NE of San Pablo City, Laguna
Distance 2: 101 km ENE of Cabuyao City, Laguna
Distance 3: 104 km ENE of Santa Rosa City, Laguna
Distance 4: 107 km ENE of San Pedro City, Laguna
Distance 5: 112 km E of Meycauayan City, Bulacan

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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