Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 004

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 004

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 004

Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Next update: Saturday Evening,  15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) has slightly intensified while shrinking in size and has drifted slowly north-northwest during the past 6 hours. Its westernmost rainbands has started to touch the southeastern portion of Eastern Samar.

This depression is expected to resume its west-northwest track within the next 12 to 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr and will make landfall over the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar, over or very close to Borongan City early tonight (between 6 to 8pm). It is forecast to lose strength upon crossing Northern Visayas and dissipate into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) tomorrow morning.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 02W (CRISING)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, April 15…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 11.2N 127.0E), about 180 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 218 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Where is it heading? It was moving North-Northwest @ 11 kphtowards Samar Provinces.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Eastern Samar between 6-8pm tonightwith a high Strike Probability of 80-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte and Masbate – Later Today.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens as it traverses Masbate…about 31 km southwest of Masbate City, Masbate [8AM APR 16: 12.2N 123.4E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Dissipates into an area of Low Pressure (LPA) while over the mountains of Occidental Mindoro…about 46 km south of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro [8PM APR 16: 12.9N 121.1E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 265 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Apr 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.2º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 142 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 245 km ESE of Catbalogan City, Samar
Distance 3: 263 km ENE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 4: 393 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 750 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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