Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 003

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 003

Issued at: 05:30 AM PhT (21:30 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Next update: Saturday Afternoon,  15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD CRISING is still expected to bring moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Samar, Samar,  Masbate, and northern portion of Leyte before dissipating as a Low Pressure Area (LPA). 

The depression is expected to maintain its west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr and shall make landfall over southern portion of Eastern Samar by Saturday afternoon (between 4 to 5 pm).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is

TD CRISING?

As of 05:00 AM PhT today, April 15…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern portion of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 10.7N 127.3E), about 233 km east-southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 302 km east of Ormoc, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 22 kphtowards Samar-Leyte Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over southern portion of Eastern Samar between 4-5pm Saturday (Apr 15)with a high Strike Probability of 75-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Eastern Visayas, Leyte, and Southern Leyte – beginning Saturday morning.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Sustains its wind speed as it make its landfall over Masbate…about 115 km northeast of Paasi City, Iloilo [2AM APR 16: 11.9N 123.4E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over Southern Occidental Mindoro…[2AM APR 17: 13.4N 119.0 @ 30kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 120 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 350 km (Midget/Very Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Sat Apr 15, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.7º N Lat 127.36º E Lon
Distance 1: 233 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 302 km E of Ormoc, Leyte
Distance 3: 370 km E of Bogo City, Cebu
Distance 4: 454 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 813 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

 

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