Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 002

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 002

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Next update: Saturday Morning,  15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD CRISING is expected to affect the Eastern Visayas, Masbate, Northern Portion of Leyte, and Southern Portion of Bicol Region.

The depression is expected to maintain its west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr and shall make landfall over Southern Eastern Samar by Saturday evening (between 7 to 8 pm).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is

TD CRISING?

As of 11:00 PM PhT, April 14…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 10.5N 127.9E), about 296 km east-southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 337 km east of Maasin Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 19 kphtowards Samar-Leyte Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Southern Eastern Samar between 7-8pm Saturday (Apr 15)with a high Strike Probability of 75-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Eastern Visayas, Northeastern Mindanao and Southern Bicol – beginning Saturday morning.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Sustains its wind speed as it make its landfall over Biliran…about 95 km south-southwest of Catarman, Samar [8PM APR 15: 11.6N 124.4E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over Southern Occidental Mindoro…about 36 km west-southwest of Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro [8PM APR 16: 13.2N 120.3E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 120 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 250 km (Midget/Very Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Apr 14, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.5º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 296 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 337 km E of Maasin, Leyte
Distance 3: 440 km E of Cebu City, Cebu
Distance 4: 517 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 875 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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