Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Update Number 001

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (CRISING) UPDATE NO. 001

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Friday 14 April 2017
Next update: Monday Early Morning,  15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The strong low pressure area east of Northeastern Mindanao has developed into Tropical Depression (TD) 02W, bearing the local name: “CRISING.”  The TD is now threatening Eastern Visayas and Southern Bicol.

This depression is expected to maintain its west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr and shall make landfall over the Southern part of Eastern Samar, just to the south of Borongan City by Saturday afternoon (between 1 to 2pm).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 02W (CRISING)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, April 14…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 10.5N 128.9E), about 380 km east-northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte or 400 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 19 kphtowards Samar-Leyte Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Eastern Samar between 1-2pm Saturday (Apr 15)with a high Strike Probability of 75-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Eastern Visayas, Northeastern Mindanao and Southern Bicol – beginning Saturday morning.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens slightly as it makes landfall over the southern part of Eastern Samar…about 25 km south-southwest of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM APR 15: 11.4N 125.3E @ 55kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) while over Southern Mindoro…about 11 km west of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro [2PM APR 16: 12.4N 121.0E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 120 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Apr 14, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.5º N Lat 128.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 356 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 435 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 3: 473 km ESE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 4: 619 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 960 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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