Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) Final Update





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 15 April 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 02W (CRISING) has started to weaken as it is about to make landfall along the coast of Eastern Samar tonight.

This depression is expected to maintain its west-northwest track within the next 12 to 24 hours at a faster speed of 26 km/hr and will dissipate further into an Area of Low Pressure upon crossing Samar and Masbate.

*Due to its anticipated dissipation, this is the Final Update on this tropical cyclone.

**Meanwhile, residents living along the path of this weakening depression must still take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 02W (CRISING)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, April 15…0900 GMT.  The center was located approaching the coast of Eastern Samar  (near 11.6N 126.3E), about 86 km northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 98 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 15 kphtowards Samar and Masbate.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Eastern Samar between 8-10pm tonightwith a high Strike Probability of 95-99%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte and Masbate – Tonight and Tomorrow (Apr 16).

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of Low Pressure while traversing Samar…about 10 km west-northwest of Calbayog City, Samar [2AM APR 16: 12.1N 124.5E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Remains an LPA as it passes over Rombon Islands…about 15 km north-northwest of Romblon [2PM APR 16: 12.7N 122.2E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 260 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Apr 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.6º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 146 km ENE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 2: 161 km E of Catbalogan City, Samar
Distance 3: 193 km ESE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 310 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 662 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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