Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 003

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 003

Issued at: 12:45 AM PhT (16:45 GMT) Monday 09 January 2017
Next update: Monday Morning,  09 January 2017
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) has slowed down further…creeping across Awasan Bay in Dinagat as it gained a little bit of strength.  Its rainbands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains across Surigao del Norte and much of the Visayan Islands today.

This depression is expected to accelerate slightly westward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 12 km/hr and will cross Bohol and Southern Cebu this morning through the afternoon.  01W (AURING) may likely weaken into a low pressure upon traversing Negros this evening.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, January 08…1500 GMT.  The center was located over Awasan Bay, Dinagat  (near 9.8N 125.6E), about 11 km northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte or 56 km west of Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

*A WPF automated weather station (AWS) located in Surigao City (LPP) has recorded wind gusts of 56 km/hr blowing from the Northwest (NW) at 11:30 PM (15:30 GMT) Jan 08.  

Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 05 kphtowards Southern Leyte-Bohol-Cebu Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Southern Leyte-Bohol Area between 3-8am this morningwith a high Strike Probability of 95-99%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Surigao Provinces and most parts of the Visayas – today.

*Where heavy to extreme rains of 50 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** MONDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area as it crosses Negros Island…about 44 km east of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental [8PM JAN 09: 10.0N 123.2E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  LOW.

TUESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies into a weak Tropical Depression (TD) while emerging over the Sulu Sea and approaches Palawan…about 136 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM JAN 10: 9.4N 119.9E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY EVENING:  Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Palawan, dissipates once again into an area of low pressure, exits the wester border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 70 km south-southeast of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [8PM JAN 11: 10.5N 114.5E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Jan 08, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 110 km SE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 2: 188 km ENE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 3: 194 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 4: 309 km ESE of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 716 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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