Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 004

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 004

Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Monday 09 January 2017
Next update: Monday Afternoon,  09 January 2017
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) has weakened as it tracks across the eastern part of the Bohol Sea on its way to Central Visayas. Its rain bands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains across much of the Visayan Islands today especially over the northern parts.

This depression is expected to turn west to west-southwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 15 km/hr crossing Northern Bohol and Southern Cebu through Southern Negros. 01W (AURING) will likely weaken into a Low Pressure Area after traversing the said provinces.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains that can cause flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 09…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Canigao Channel (near 10.0N 124.7E), about 24 km southwest of Maasin City, Southern Leyte or 28 km east of Ubay, Bohol.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph. 
Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 17 kphtowards Northern Bohol.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Northern Bohol this morning, over Southern Cebu around noontime, and over the eastern-central coast of Negros Oriental early this afternoon, with a Strike Probability of 70-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Most parts of the Visayas – today.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a low pressure area after crossing the southern parts of Central and Western Visayas…about 131 km southwest of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental [2AM JAN 10: 9.2N 121.9E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains a little bit of strength as it tracks across the Sulu Sea…makes another landfall over Central Palawan…about 67 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM JAN 11: 9.6N 118.3E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Weakens anew and moves out of the Philippine area of Responsibility (PAR) in a westerly to west-northwesterly track…about 62 km south-southeast of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [2AM JAN 12: 10.5N 114.4E @ 35kph].    Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Jan 09, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.0º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 98 km ENE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 2: 96 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 3: 123 km ESE of Toledo City, Cebu
Distance 4: 202 km ESE of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 648 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines

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