Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Final Update

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Issued at: 1:15 PM PhT (05:15 GMT) Monday 09 January 2017
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) has barely moved over the Canigao Channel during the past six hours as it strugglingly maintains its weak strength. Its associated rain bands are currently bringing moderate to heavy rains across most parts of the Visayas including some provinces of Southern Luzon.

This depression is expected to turn west to west-southwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr, moving along the northern coast of Bohol and crossing Southern Cebu through Southern Negros this afternoon through evening. 01W (AURING) is forecast to weaken into a Low Pressure Area within the next 6 to 12 hours as it begins to traverse the said provinces.

Unless significant re-strengthening is seen with the structure of this system, this will be the final update for 01W (AURING).

*However, residents living along the path and within the associated Trough of this disturbance are still advised to take all necessary precautions against heavy rains that can cause flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, January 09…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the Canigao Channel (near 10.2N 124.5E) just off the coast of Northeastern Bohol, about 26 km east of Talibon, Bohol or 38 km west of Maasin City, Southern Leyte.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph. 
Where is it heading? It was moving very slowly Northwest @ 5 kph, over the Canigao Channel.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over the northern coasts of Bohol through Southern Cebu this afternoon, and over the eastern-central coast of Negros Oriental early this evening, with a Strike Probability of 70-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Most parts of the Visayas including Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon – today.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of up to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a low pressure area after crossing the southern parts of Central and Western Visayas…about 212 km west-southwest of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental [8AM JAN 10: 9.1N 121.1E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  LOW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Regains a little bit of strength as it reemerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 179 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM JAN 11: 9.6N 117.2E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

THURSDAY MORNING:  Weakens anew as it moves out of the Philippine area of Responsibility (PAR) in a west-northwesterly track…about 132 km west-northwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [8AM JAN 12: 11.3N 113.1E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 100 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Jan 09, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.2º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km NE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 2: 68 km E of Metro Cebu
Distance 3: 95 km ESE of Toledo City, Cebu
Distance 4: 174 km ESE of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 617 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines


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