Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 002

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 002

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 002

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 08 January 2017
Next update: Monday Early Morning,  09 January 2017
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) is now in the vicinity of Dinagat Islands, after passing very close to Siargao Island a few hours ago. Its rainbands will continue to bring heavy rains across Northeastern Mindanao and Central Visayas this evening through Monday (Jan 09).

This depression is expected to move slowly on a west-northwest to westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr and will traverse Surigao Del Norte tonight, passing across Southern Leyte-Bohol-Cebu Area by Monday morning,  and over Negros Island by Monday afternoon (Jan 09).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, January 08…0900 GMT.  The center was located in between the islands of Siargao and Dinagat, or just south of Dinagat Sound (near 9.7N 125.8E), about 31 km southwest of Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte or 35 km east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 18 kphtowards Surigao del Norte-Southern Leyte-Bohol Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Surigao del Norte between 6-8pm tonightwith a high Strike Probability of 95-99%; and over the Southernmost part of Southern Leyte between 12-2am Monday (Jan 09), with a high strike probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga Region) and Central Visayas – tonight through Monday (Jan 09).

*Where heavy to extreme rains of 50 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Low Pressure Area while over Central Negros…about 40 km south-southeast of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental [2PM JAN 09: 10.3N 123.1E @ 35kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies into a weak Tropical Depression (TD) while emerging over the Sulu Sea…about 175 km east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM JAN 10: 9.7N 120.3E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Palawan, dissipates once again into an area of low pressure…about 316 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM JAN 11: 10.7N 116.0E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Jan 08, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.7º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km NNE of Butuan City, Agusan del Norte
Distance 2: 134 km SE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 3: 218 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 4: 219 km E of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 5: 739 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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