Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 001

Tropical Depression 01W (AURING) Update Number 001

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AURING) UPDATE NO. 001

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Sunday 08 January 2017
Next update: Sunday Evening,  08 January 2017
Current Status and Outlook The broad tropical disturbance (LPA 96W) near the east coast of Surigao del Sur has strengthened into Tropical Depression 01W, with local name “Auring”…now threatens Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga Region) and Visayas.

This depression is expected to accelerate on a west-northwest track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr and will traverse Surigao Del Norte tonight, passing across the northern coast of Bohol early Monday morning and over Central Cebu at around 8am (Jan 09).

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 01W (AURING)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, January 08…0300 GMT.  The center was located near the east coast of Tandag, Surigao del Sur (near 9.3N 126.7E), about 94 km southeast of Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte or 143 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving Northwest @ 13 kphtowards Surigao del Norte-Bohol Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Surigao del Norte between 6-8pm tonight, with a high Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga Region) and Visayas.

*Where heavy to extreme rains of 50 to more than 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** MONDAY MORNING: Over Tanon Strait or between Cebu and Negros…about 69 km east-southeast of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental [8AM JAN 09: 10.4N 123.5E @ 45kph]Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Turns westward across Sulu Sea just after traversing Western Visayas and intensifies slightly…about 78 km south of Cuyo Island [8AM JAN 10: 10.2N 121.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Maintains its strength after crossing Northern Palawan…emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 206 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM JAN 11: 10.5N 117.0E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Jan 08, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.3º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km NNE of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur
Distance 2: 139 km ENE of Bislig City, Agusan del Norte
Distance 3: 320 km ESE of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 4: 326 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 5: 848 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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