Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 03


Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward at a speed of 31 km/hr over the northwestern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to make landfall over the eastern coast of Central Palawan tonight (Jan 02) between 8-9PM. Residents are advised to take all precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, lightning strikes, and strong winds. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves west-northwestward at a forward speed of 34 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern-Eastern-Western Visayas…becoming more frequent along Northern and Central Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands.

Where is 01W (AGATON)? As of 05:00 PM PhT today, January 02…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the Sulu Sea (near 9.4N 119.7E), about 118 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 308 km west of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West @ 31 kph, towards Central Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along the eastern coast of Central Palawan tonight between 8-9pm, with a High  Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Northern Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the southwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 208 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 03: 10.2N 116.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 596 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 03: 11.3N 113.5E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 570 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Tue January 02, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.4º N Lat 119.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 346 km W of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 356 km WSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 376 km W of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 378 km WSW of Paasi  City, Iloilo
Distance 5: 594 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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