Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 02

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 02 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) continues to move very quickly westward and is now over the central part of the Sulu Sea, or in the vicinity of Cagayancillo Island.  The core of the TD is expected to make landfall over Central Palawan early tonight before emerging over the West Philippine Sea.  Rainy weather with strong winds are likely across Central and Northern Palawan this afternoon through the evening. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to continue moving quickly to the west with a fast forward speed of 36 km/hr, and could become a Tropical Storm later today.  It shall be crossing Central Palawan tonight between 7-8pm and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea early tomorrow morning (Jan 03), and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before noon tomorrow.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern-Eastern-Western Visayas…becoming more frequent along Northern and Central Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands.

Where is 01W (AGATON)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, January 02…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the Sulu Sea (near 9.5N 121.4E), about 20 km east-southeast of Cagayancillo Island or 291 km east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West @ 35 kph, towards Central Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along Central Palawan  between 7-8pm tonight, with a High  Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Northern Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Aborlan, Palawan as it becomes a Tropical Storm (TS), moving quickly westward…about 74 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Jan 02: 9.5N 118.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves out of PAR on WNW track, passing over the Kalayaan Island Group…about 470 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Jan 03: 10.2N 114.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into a TD as it moves WNW across the South China Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam…about 934 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Jan 04: 11.6N 110.4E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 345 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue January 02, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.5º N Lat 121.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 122 km WSW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 166 km WSW of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 189 km W of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 205 km N of Bago City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 565 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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