Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 01





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 02 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) newly-formed over Southern Visayas as it rapidly moves westward across the area at a speed of 39 km/hr…now making landfall over the Southern Tip of Cebu, and will traverse Southern Negros in the next couple of hours and emerge over the Sulu Sea, passing very near Cagayancillo Island around noontime today.  This TD will eventually cross Central Palawan tonight.

24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to continue moving quickly to the west with a fast forward speed of 36 km/hr, and could become a Tropical Storm later today.  It shall be crossing Central Palawan tonight between 7-8pm and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea early tomorrow morning (Jan 03), and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by midday morning.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Southern Bicol, Visayas, Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Eastern and Western Visayas, and Palawan.

Where is 01W (AGATON)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 02…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Southern Tip of Cebu or in the vicinity of Samboan, Cebu (near 9.5N 123.3E), about 21 km north of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental or 37 km east of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West @ 39 kph, towards Southern Negros-Central Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along the Southern part of Negros this morning…and over Central Palawan between 7-8pm tonight, with a High  Strike Probability of 85-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Visayas and Palawan – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across Sulu Sea, approaching Central Palawan…about 182 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 02: 9.6N 120.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan…moving generally westward as it is about to exit PAR…about 263 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 03: 9.7N 116.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its TS classification as it turns WNW across the South China Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Vietnam…about 860 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 04: 11.1N 111.0E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 435 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue January 02, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.5º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 66 km WSW of Tagbilaran City, Bohol
Distance 2: 77 km S of Guihulngan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 3: 92 km ESE of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 98 km N of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 5: 615 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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