TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 04 [FINAL]
Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Wednesday 03 January 2018
|Current Status and Outlook||
Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) is now over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan between 10-11pm last night, and is expected to reach the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) this afternoon. This cyclone will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before noon today.
*This is the Final Update on this year’s first Tropical Cyclone.
24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to move west-northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 25 km/hr across the West Philippine and South China Seas, and shall maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours. By Thursday afternoon (Jan 04), 01W (AGATON) shall start to dissipate as it nears the east coast of Vietnam.
|Where is 01W (AGATON)?||As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 03…2100 GMT. The center was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 9.8N 116.3E), about 260 km east-southeast of Pagasa Island (KIG), or 273 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.|
|How strong is it?||
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
|Past Movement (06 hrs)||It was moving West @ 32 kph, towards Kalayaan Island Group-South China Sea Area.|
|Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)||:: None.|
|What Philippine areas will be most affected?||Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
|Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+||:: None.|
|1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**||
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratlys), outside of PAR as it turns west-northwestward while maintaining its strength…about 570 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 03: 11.1N 113.7E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving closer to the east coast of Vietnam while over the South China Sea, with no change of strength and track…about 784 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 04: 11.6N 111.8E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
|Other Storm Info||> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Very Small/Midget)
> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
|Additional Distances||Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed January 03, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 116.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 662 km SW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 679 km W of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 698 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 709 km SW of Balanga City, Bataan
Distance 5: 741 km SW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines