Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 013

Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 013

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TYPHOON NOCK-TEN (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 013

Issued at: 2:30 AM PhT (18:30 GMT) Monday 26 December 2016
Next update: Monday Mid-Morning,  26 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook NOCK-TEN (NINA) has been downgraded into a Typhoon after making its second landfall along the eastern shores of Camarines Sur at around 9:30 PM tonight. Wind gusts of 237 km/hr was recorded by WeatherPhilippines’ Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Naga Airport (Philippine Airlines) at around 11:00 PM.

This super typhoon is expected to continue moving in a westerly track within the next 12 hours at a speed of 22 km/hr, crossing Ragay Gulf through southern tip of Quezon and Marinduque. It shall turn west-northwest passing through Verde Island Passage during the next 12 hours. It shall continue to gradually weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Southern Tagalog Provinces and the cold and drier air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).

*Residents in areas along the path of Nock-ten (Nina) are advised to take full precautionary measures against strong winds brought about by this cyclone.

Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 25…1500 GMT.  The eye/center was located over the mid-southern part of Camarines Sur (near 13.5N 123.3E), about 18 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur or 16 km northwest of Iriga City, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center…Gustiness: 240 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West @ 24 kphtowards Ragay Gulf, Southern Quezon and Marinduque Area.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over Southern Quezon and Marinduque early Monday morning, Dec 26.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon (Southern part of Quezon) and Northern Mindoro

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Mindoro – through Monday morning (Dec 26).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** MONDAY EVENING: Weakens rapidly into a Category 1 Typhoon as it further interacts with the landmass of Southern Quezon, Mindoro and CaLaBaRZon…about 135 km west-northwest of Lubang Island [8PM DEC 26: 14.2N 119.0E @ 145kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) due to entrainment of cold and drier air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) while over the West Philippine Sea…about to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and starts to bend to the southwest…about 552 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales  [8PM DEC 27: 14.5N 115.2E @ 105kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING:  Continues to lose strength over the South China Sea as it drifts southwestward…about 370 km west of the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8PM DEC 28: 12.5N 111.6E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Dec 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 188 km NW of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 96 km NW of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 62 km NW of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 119 km ESE of Calauag, Quezon
Distance 5: 275 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

nina-tcwsIssued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines

 

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