Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 014



Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Monday 26 December 2016
Next update: Monday Afternoon,  26 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) continues to gradually lose strength while traversing Southern Quezon.

This typhoon is expected to turn west-northwestward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 23 km/hr, and will be tracking along the southern shores of Batangas. It shall weaken further but will remain a threat to CaLaBaRZon, Northern Mindoro and adjacent provinces including the National Capital Region (NCR) due to its retaining typhoon strength winds.

*Residents in areas along the path of Nock-ten (Nina) are advised to take full precautionary measures against strong winds blasted by this typhoon.

Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 26…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the island of Marinduque (near 13.5N 122.1E), about 27 km east-northeast of Boac, Marinduque or 116 km east-southeast of Batangas City, Batangas.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 170 kph near the center…Gustiness: 215 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West @ 22 kphtowards Marinduque-Tayabas Bay.
Potential Landfall Area(s) Over the southeastern part of Batangas this morning, Dec 26.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: CaLaBaRZon and Northern Mindoro.

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Southern Quezon, Batangas and Northern Mindoro – today (Dec 26).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea and weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it interacts with the cold and dry air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)…about 263 km west-northwest of Lubang Island [2AM DEC 27: 14.3N 117.8E @ 110kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and weakens further as it starts to bend its track southwestward… about 610 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales  [2AM DEC 28: 14.1N 114.7E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Drifts southwestward and dissipates into an area of low pressure over the southern portion of the South China Sea…about 240 km east of Nha Trang City, Vietnam [2AM DEC 29: 12.4N 111.4E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 95 km from the center.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Dec 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5º N Lat 122.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 119 km W of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 102 km E of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 3: 182 km WNW of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 68 km SSW of Calauag, Quezon
Distance 5: 169 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines


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