Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 015



Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Monday 26 December 2016
Next update: Monday Evening,  26 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has weakened further as it continues with its westerly track along the Verde Island Passage.

This typhoon is expected to turn west-northwestward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr towards the West Philippine Sea. It will continue losing strength due to the entrainment of cold and dry air from the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).

*Residents in areas along the path of Nock-ten (Nina) are advised to take full precautionary measures against strong winds blasted by this typhoon.

Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 26…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the Balayan Bay (near 13.7N 120.7E), about 39 km west of Batangas City, Batangas or 57 km east of Lubang Island.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West @ 26 kphtowards Verde Island Passage.
Potential Landfall Area(s) None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* :: Western Batangas, Lubang Islands and Westernmost part of Cavite, today.

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.

+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) over the West Philippine Sea and will start to turn west-southwestward from a west-northwest track…about 310 km west-northwest of Lubang Island [8AM DEC 27: 14.5N 117.4E @ 105kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Bends southwestward as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and weakens further…about 681 km west of Lubang Island [8AM DEC 28: 13.4N 113.9E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING:  Drifts down further southwestward as it dissipates into an area of low pressure over the southern portion of the South China Sea…about 281 km east-southeast of Nha Trang City, Vietnam [8AM DEC 29: 11.1N 111.5E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 510 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 85 km from the center.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Dec 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.7º N Lat 120.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 62 km NW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 67 km SSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 54 km SSW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 131 km SSE of Subic Bay, Pampanga
Distance 5: 106 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines


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