Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) Update Number 016



Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Monday 26 December 2016
Next update: Tuesday Morning,  27 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has now emerged over the West Philippine Sea as it shifted back its course to the west-northwest. Its eastern outer rain bands are still affecting the western sections of Central and Northern Luzon.

This typhoon is expected to continue moving west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 16 km/hr farther away from the country, and shall weaken further into a Tropical Storm due to the entrainment of cold and dry air from the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).

Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 26…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the east-northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 14.3N 119.2E), about 131 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales or 142 km southwest of Iba, Zambales.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 145 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 29 kphtowards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Landfall Area(s) None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?* None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) near the western border of the West Philippine Sea. Starts to turn southwestward from a previously west-northwest track…about 310 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [2PM DEC 27: 15.2N 116.3E @ 105kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further into a minimal Tropical Storm and drifts southwestward due to strong steering currents from the Northeast Monsoon ( Amihan) as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and…about 702 km west of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 28: 13.5N 113.7E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Drifts down further to the southern portion of the South China Sea and dissipates into an area of low pressure…about 358 km east-southeast of Nha Trang City, Vietnam [2PM DEC 29: 11.5N 112.4E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center.

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Dec 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.3º N Lat 119.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 236 km WNW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 179 km W of Trece Martires City, Cavite
Distance 3: 191 km W of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 270 km NNW of Coron, Palawan
Distance 5: 195 km W of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for WeatherPhilippines


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