Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 11

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (VINTA) UPDATE NO. 11

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 24 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward across the southwestern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to intensify into a Typhoon (TY) before its landfall over the Southernmost part of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24) between 1-2 am. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions for possible flash floods, landslides, lightning strikes, strong winds, and storm surge.

24-hr Outlook: STS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to intensify into a Typhoon (TY) before it passes over the Southernmost part of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24). It will continue moving westward at a forward speed of 25 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

STS TEMBIN (VINTA) will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Palawan.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)? As of 05:00 PM PhT today, December 23…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.7N 118.7E), about 252 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 473 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving Westward @ 20 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along the Southernmost part of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24) between 1-2 am, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan – Today through Sunday afternoon (Dec 24).


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Southernmost part of Palawan – beginning tonight through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Southern Palawan – beginning tonight through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes, and beach front areas of the above areas.

1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Passes over the Southernmost part of Palawan as a Typhoon (TY), over the western coast of Southern Palawan…about 310 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 24: 8.2N 116.6E @ 120kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Typhoon (TY), over the West Philippine Sea…about 564 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 24: 8.4N 113.9E @ 130kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 890 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center

Additional Distances Time/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Sat December 23, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.7º N Lat 118.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 496 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 510 km WSW of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental
Distance 3: 519 km WSW of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 527 km W of Dapitan City, Zamboanga del Norte
Distance 5: 806 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

 

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