Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 10





Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) continues to gain strength while moving westward over the warm waters of the Sulu Sea…now endangers Southern Palawan, where deteriorating weather conditions will be expected later tonight.

24-hr Outlook: STS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to move generally westward at a forward speed of 23 km/hr and could become a Typhoon later today.  It is forecast to make landfall over the southernmost part of Southern Palawan between 12-1am early tomorrow (Sunday, Dec 24), passing over or very close to the Town of Balabac, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea before noon tomorrow.

Residents along Southern Palawan are advised to take full precautionary measures as Tembin (Vinta) is forecast to make landfall over the area.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and STS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, MIMAROPA, Sulu Archipelago, and Western Mindanao.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 23…0300 GMT. The center was located over the central part of Sulu Sea (near 7.8N 119.8E), about 266 km south-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 297 km east-southeast of Balabac, Palawan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving Westward @ 18 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Along the southernmost part of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24) between 12-1am, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan  – Today through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Southernmost part of Palawan – beginning Saturday evening through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Southern Palawan – beginning tonight through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) as it is about to leave the southwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 401 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 24: 8.4N 115.5E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its TY classification while over the southern part of the South China Sea…moving closer to Southern Vietnam…about 951 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 25: 8.8N 110.2E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 495 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center

Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat December 23, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.8º N Lat 119.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km SW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 397 km WSW of Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 406 km WSW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 4: 416 km WSW of Bais  City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 766 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



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