Severe Tropical Storm TALIM (LANNIE) Update Number 002





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday 12 September 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 September 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm TALIM (LANNIE) maintains its strength as it moves faster northwestward across the North Philippine Sea…no threat to the Philippines.

This storm is expected to slow down and move west-northwest for the next 24 hours at a speed of 25 km/hr, and shall be over the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea or approaching Ishigakijima by early Wednesday morning (Sept 13).  TALIM (LANNIE) could become a Typhoon (TY) later this afternoon.

Where is TALIM (Lannie)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 12…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Central Part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.1N 131.0E), about 938 km east of Basco, Batanes or 970 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving Northwest @ 34 kph, towards Ishigakijima-Yaeyama Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected in 24 hours):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) as it moves swiftly across the northernmost part of the North Philippine Sea, approaching Ishigakijima…about 536 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Sept 13: 23.1N 126.4E @ 145kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it strengthens further while over the southern part of the East China Sea…about 194 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Sept 14: 25.8N 123.3E @ 180kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 740 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center

Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue September 12, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.1º N Lat 131.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1014 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 1036 km E of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 1047 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1074 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 1277 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


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