Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W StormWatch No. 02

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W StormWatch No. 02

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 99W STORMWATCH NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 09 November 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Friday 10 Nov 2017 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W has been struggling to organize during the past 24 hours…now making landfall over Northern Samar and will begin to traverse the Northern Masbate-Sibuyan Sea-Romblon-Mindoro Area today.

24-hr Outlook: LPA 99W is still expected to become a Tropical Depression (TD) either over the Sibuyan Sea or upon reaching the West Philippine Sea. By early Friday morning (Nov 10), 99W will be emerging over the Northwest Coast of Occidental Mindoro or in the vicinity of Lubang Island as it tracks west-northwestward at a forward speed of 28 kph.

The system’s circulation together with its associated Trough and the prevailing Northeasterlies will bring scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across the Visayas, Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon including Metro Manila, Northern Palawan, Romblon, Marinduque, Mindoro, Central and Southern Luzon – today through Friday (Nov 10).

Where is the LPA 99W? As of 5:00 AM PhT, November 09…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the eastern coast of Northern Samar or along the shores of Lapinig, Northern Samar (near 12.3N 125.3E), about 73 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar or 190 km east of Masbate City, Masbate. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West-Northwest @ 26 kph, towards Northwestern Samar-Northern Masbate-Romblon-Mindoro Area.
Forecast Highlights
  • The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to reach Tropical Depression (TD) status once it moves over the Sibuyan Sea. If the system maintains its strength, then it will remain a Low Pressure Area (LPA) as it traverses the area. The forecast confidence is currently at MEDIUM.
  • Its main circulation will bring scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across the Visayas, Bicol Region, Central and Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque  today through Friday (Nov 10).
  • Once this LPA becomes a TD it will be named locally as “SALOME.”
  • The Day 2 forecast (Nov 11) shows 99W moving out of the PAR on Saturday early morning, in the general direction of Southern China. 
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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