Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 99W STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday 31 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 01 Jan 2018 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W, a newly-developing weather system has been organizing and moving westward across the northeastern part of the South Philippine Sea. This LPA is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 24 to 48 hours.
Where is LPA 99W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 31…0900 GMT. The developing center was located over the northeastern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 10.0N 132.6E), about 719 km east of Siargao Island or 777 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 15 km/hr  towards Eastern Mindanao.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours as a Tropical Depression (TD) while crossing Northern Mindanao and into Sulu Sea. The forecast confidence is at MEDIUM.
  • Forecast to make landfall as a TD over the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by late Monday afternoon (Jan 01, 2018) with medium forecast confidence.
  • It will be known locally as either “WILMA” if it develops tonight, or as “AGATON” if tomorrow morning.
  • This LPA is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Mindanao and some portions of the Visayas beginning tomorrow, New Year’s Day (Jan 01, 2018). Meanwhile, the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas will continue to have occasional monsoon rains due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).
  • Shall leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Tropical Storm (TS) on Wednesday morning (Jan 03) after making its second landfall over Southern Palawan.
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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