Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W [AGATON] StormWatch No. 02




Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 01 January 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Tuesday 02 Jan 2018 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W [AGATON] remains disorganized as it approaches the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur, expected to make landfall over the area tonight and will traverse the northern part of Caraga Region late tonight and Northern Mindanao through Tuesday morning (Jan 02). This LPA is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it reaches Sulu Sea, within the next 24 to 48 hours.
Where is LPA 99W (AGATON)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, January 01…0900 GMT. The ill-defined center was located near the east coast of Surigao Del Sur (9.0N 127.6E), about 169 km east-northeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 244 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 24 km/hr  towards Northern Caraga-Northern Mindanao Area.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours – as a Tropical Depression (TD) after crossing Northern Mindanao or over Sulu Sea. The forecast confidence remains at MEDIUM.
  • Forecast to make its second landfall as a TD or Tropical Storm (TS) over Southern Palawan by Tuesday evening (Jan 02) with medium forecast confidence.
  • The LPA’s rainbands will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rain showers and thunderstorms across most parts of Mindanao and the Rest of the Visayas. Meanwhile, the Bicol Region, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Northern Visayas will continue to have occasional monsoon rains due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).
  • Forecast to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Tropical Storm (TS) on Wednesday morning (Jan 03).
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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