Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W StormWatch No. 001

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W StormWatch No. 001

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 98W STORMWATCH #001

Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Wednesday 11 October 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (03:00 GMT), Thursday 12 Oct 2017 or earlier
Current Status and Outlook A rapidly, organizing Tropical Disturbance (LPA) [98W] has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is currently moving across the eastern warm waters of the Central Philippine Sea.  This LPA may develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 to 48 hours and could threaten Extreme Northern Luzon tomorrow (Oct 12).

Residents along the northernmost parts of Luzon must monitor and should pay attention on this LPA as it heads towards Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Islands Area.

Where is LPA 98W? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 11…0300 GMT.  The developing center was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.4N 132.9E), about 1,164 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1,158 km east of Casiguran, Aurora. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West to West-Northwest @ 35 kph, towards Extreme Northern Luzon.
Forecast Highlights
  • The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are showing this system to become a Tropical Depression up to a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 24 to 36 hours, upon traversing the Northern Coastal Areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte on Thursday evening, Oct 12The forecast confidence is currently at Medium (35-65%).
  • Initial effects of LPA 98W and its Trough, together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) are likely beginning Today through Friday Morning (Oct 13).
  • Once this LPA becomes a TD, it will be locally named as “ODETTE.”
  • This LPA is forecast to leave the northwestern border of the PAR on Friday morning (Oct 13). 
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with 12-hrly or 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA 98W becomes a Tropical Cyclone and its threat to the Philippines increases.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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