Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W [URDUJA] StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 96W [URDUJA] STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Wednesday 13 Dec 2017 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook A developing area of low pressure, Tropical Disturbance 96W (URDUJA), has been organizing slowly over the northern part of the South Philippine Sea.  This LPA is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 to 48 hours.

Its western rainbands together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao beginning today through Thursday (Dec 14).

Where is LPA 96W (URDUJA)? As of 5:00 PM PhT, December 12…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 9.5N 130.5E), about 548 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte or 550 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 30 kph near the center…Gustiness: 40 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving North-Northwest slowly, towards Southwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours, however, the tracks of these models are not agreeing with each other. Thus, the low confidence of our final track. The system’s strength could likely be Tropical Depression (TD) or Tropical Storm (TS) classification as it nears Eastern Samar on Friday afternoon (Dec 15). The forecast confidence is at LOW.
  • This LPA is now known locally as “URDUJA.”
  • The Day 3 to 4 Forecast (Dec 15-16) shows the system making landfall over Eastern Samar and crossing the central part of Samar Island at Tropical Storm (TS) strength, but with low forecast confidence.
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 12 or 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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