Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 90W StormWatch No. 02

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 90W STORMWATCH NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 17 November 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Saturday 18 Nov 2017 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 90W has emerged over the warm Sulu Sea after crossing Mindanao over the past 24 hours. Its circulation is currently disorganized due to the interaction with the large landmass of Mindanao. Nevertheless, this LPA will eventually become a Tropical Depression (TD)  before or after it crosses Southern Palawan later today. 

The system’s broad rainbands together with its associated Trough and an enhanced Easterlies will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Northern and Eastern Mindanao, and Visayas including Bicol Region today.

Where is the LPA 90W? As of 5:00 AM PhT, November 17…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southern part of Sulu Sea (near 8.1N 120.5E), about 217 km west-northwest of Zamboanga City or 344 km east-southeast of Bataraza, Palawan. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West-Northwest @ 33 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) continues to predict this system to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours, before or after it crosses Southern Palawan.  The system’s strength could likely be a Tropical Depression (TD) before or after it crosses Southern Palawan later today. The forecast confidence is at HIGH.
  • Its main circulation will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across Sulu Archipelago and Palawan particularly the Southern part today through Saturday morning (Nov 18).
  • Once this LPA becomes a TD it will be named locally as “TINO.”
  • The Day 1 forecast (Nov 18) shows it moving out of the PAR by early tomorrow morning (Saturday), in the general direction of Southern Vietnam. 
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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