Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 90W StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 90W STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 9:30 AM PhT (01:30 GMT) Thursday 16 November 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Friday 17 Nov 2017 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook An approaching broad and developing Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the South Philippine Sea is expected to cross Mindanao today.  This LPA dubbed as “90W” is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours…may threaten and cross Palawan on Friday evening (Nov 17).

The system’s circulation together with its associated Trough will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Mindanao, Visayas including Bicol Region, Sulu Archipelago, and Palawan beginning today through Friday (Nov 17).

Where is the LPA 90W? As of 8:00 AM PhT, November 16…0000 GMT.  The center was located over the western part of the South Philippine Sea or just along the Southeastern Coast of Davao Oriental (near 6.8N 127.5E), about 140 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 211 km east-southeast of Davao City. 
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) It was moving West-Northwest @ 34 kph, towards Southeastern, South-Central and Western Mindanao.
Forecast Highlights
  • The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 36 hours once it emerges over the Sulu Sea, just west of Zamboanga Peninsula.  The system’s strength could likely be a Tropical Depression (TD) but may reach Tropical Storm (TS) classification as it crosses Southern or Central Palawan on Friday evening (Nov 17). The forecast confidence is at HIGH.
  • Its main circulation will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across Mindanao, Sulu Archipelago and Palawan beginning today through Friday (Nov 17).
  • Once this LPA becomes a TD it will be named locally as “TINO.”
  • The Day 3 forecast (Nov 11) shows it moving out of the PAR on Saturday early morning, in the general direction of Southern China. 
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

 

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