Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 01W StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 01W STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 19 January 2019
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Sunday 20 January 2019
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 01W which has been traveling across the southern parts of Micronesia during the past two weeks is now expected to enter the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today.  This LPA is likely to become a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 06 to 24 hours, and could affect Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region beginning tomorrow, Sunday (Jan 20) through Tuesday (Jan 22). Heavy rains associated with this LPA and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon will again  be expected along the above mentioned areas.

This LPA is still far to directly affect any part of the country within the next 24 to 48 hours.

Where is LPA 01W? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 19…2100 GMT. The center was located approaching the Republic of Palau (Federated States of Micronesia) [near 7.8°N 136.1°E], about 184 km east-northeast of Koror, Palau or 1,073 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs) Westward @ 19 km/hr, towards the South Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • This LPA is expected to intensify within the next 06 to 24 hours, and could become a Tropical Depression (TD).
  • The WPF’s Day 1 to 2 Forecast (Jan 20-21) shows it making landfall along Surigao Del Norte-Dinagat Area by tomorrow, Sunday afternoon, and may pass in between Southern Leyte-Bohol-Northern Cebu Area on Monday (Jan 21).  The confidence of this forecast is at MEDIUM (35-65% chance).
  • The Day 3 to 4 Forecast (Jan 22-23) shows LPA 01W just lingering or remaining almost stationary along Central Visayas and could dissipate over land. Forecast confidence is at MEDIUM (35-65% chance).
  • This LPA together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will generate moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 mm across Northern and Eastern Mindanao today, and across Visayas and Bicol Region beginning Sunday through Tuesday (Jan 20-22). These rains may likely cause flash floods, landslides, mudslides along the hazard-prone areas of the affected areas. Please take all necessary precautions.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “AMANG” once it enters the PAR and becomes a TD.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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