Tropical Storm VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 18

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TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (AMBO) UPDATE NO. 18

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 May 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

The weakening Tropical Storm VONGFONG (AMBO) has emerged over the West Philippine Sea as it started turning more northward just along the west coast of Ilocos Norte. Scattered rains & thunderstorms with squalls will continue to spread across Northern & Central Luzon today.

24-hr Outlook: TS VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to continue moving northward @ 13 km/hr as it weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD), and shall pass over the western sections of Balintang & Bashi Channels tonight through tomorrow morning (May 17).

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, May 16…0300 GMT. The ill-defined center was located over the western coast of Ilocos Norte (near 18.1°N 120.0°E), about 64 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 102 km west-southwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northwest @ 30 kph, towards Balintang & Bashi Channels.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Some areas of Central & Northern Luzon – Today


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while moving northward across the western part of Bashi Channel…about 184 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM May 17: 20.5°N 120.2°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Accelerates rapidly NE-ward while over the Yaeyama Islands…weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it is about to leave the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 372 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM May 18: 24.1°N 125.1°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 535 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat May 16, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 18.1°N Lat 120.0°E Lon
Distance 1:  170 km WNW of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 2: 176 km W of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 199 km NNW of  Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 4: 217 km N of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 408 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.5°N 120.2°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.1°N 125.1°E (LPA)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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