Severe Tropical Storm VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 16

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (AMBO) UPDATE NO. 16

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 May 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm VONGFONG (AMBO) has weakened slightly while crossing Central Luzon…now in the vicinity of Southern Nueva Ecija, passing very close to Gapan City. Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, with Tropical Storm Force Winds affecting the area.

24-hr Outlook: STS VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to move north-northwest to northerly @ 19 km/hr and will weaken further into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it traverses Tarlac and Pangasinan early this morning. It will emerge over the West Philippine Sea or just along the west coast of Ilocos Provinces by tonight.

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, May 15…1500 GMT. The center was located over Southern Nueva Ecija (near 15.3°N 120.9°E), about 12 km west of Gapan City, Nueva Ecija or 38 km east-northeast of Angeles City, Pampanga.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Tarlac-Pangasinan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Central Luzon and some portions of Southern Northern Luzon – Today


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Pangasinan – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Just along the western coast of  of Ilocos Norte…weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS)about 84 km NW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM May 16: 18.7°N 120.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Just over the Bashi Channel…weakened Further, as it recurve towards the NEabout 48 km NNW of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM May 17: 21.2°N 121.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EVENING: Accelerates NE-ward across the Southern Islands of Japan…undergoes Extratropical Transition…about 367 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM May 18: 26.3°N 128.1°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 330 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri May 15, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 15.3°N Lat 120.9°E Lon
Distance 1:  36 km ENE of Mabalacat City, Pampanga
Distance 2: 38 km ESE of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 3: 57 km S of  San Jose City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 4: 79 km NNW of Antipolo City, Rizal
Distance 5: 83 km NNW of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.7°N 120.0°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.2°N 121.7°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.3°N 128.1°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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