Severe Tropical Storm VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 15

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (AMBO) UPDATE NO. 15

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

VONGFONG (AMBO) has been downgraded into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it interacts with the mountains of Quezon Province…approaching Real-Infanta Area (Quezon). This storm is expected to traverse Central Luzon tonight and will bring heavy to intense rain fall with moderate to strong winds for the next 12 hours.

24-hr Outlook: STS VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to move north-northwest @ 21 km/hr and will make another landfall over Real-Infanta Area within the next few hours and is likely to weaken further. It will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea or just along the west coast of Ilocos Provinces by tomorrow afternoon (May 16).

*Landfall Update: STS VONGFONG (AMBO) has made landfall over Real-Infanta Area (near 14.7N, 121.6E) at around 6:00 PM today.

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 15…0900 GMT. The center was located along Lamon Bay or over the offshore area of Tignoan, Quezon (near 14.5°N 121.7°E), about 25 km south of Infanta, Quezon or 69 km east of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 16 kph, towards Northern Quezon-Central Luzon Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Over Real and Infanta, Quezon, between 6 to 7 PM local time tonight – with High Strike Probability of 100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Central Luzon – Today


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Northern Part of Northern Quezon – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the western coast of  of Ilocos Sur…weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS)about 70 km NW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM May 16: 18.0°N 119.9°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Just along Western Part of the Bashi Channel…weakened Further, as it recurve towards the NEabout 78 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM May 17: 20.9°N 121.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates NE-ward across the Southern Islands of Japan…undergoes Extratropical Transition…about 367 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM May 18: 24.9°N 125.2°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri May 15, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 14.5°N Lat 121.7°E Lon
Distance 1:  63 km N of Lucena City, Quezon
Distance 2: 63 km NE of San Pablo City, Laguna
Distance 3: 190 km WNW of  Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 71 km ENE of Calamba City, Laguna
Distance 5: 75 km NE of Tanauan City, Batangas
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.0°N 119.9°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.9°N 121.1°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.9°N 125.2°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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