Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 14

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TYPHOON VONGFONG (AMBO) UPDATE NO. 14

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

The core of Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) remains intact as it accelerated northwestward during the past six hours, and is now over the towns of Macalelon, Lopez, and Gumaca, Quezon. Destructive typhoon-force winds with heavy to extreme rainfall will continue to lash these areas.   The track of this weakening typhoon will bring its core somewhere along Eastern Laguna-Northern Quezon Area late this afternoon.

24-hr Outlook: TY VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to move north-northwest @ 19 km/hr and will make another landfall over Real-Infanta Area tonight and is likely to weaken into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS). Late tonight, the system will Eastern Nueva Ecija, Eastern Pangasinan, and Benguet through early Saturday morning and will be in the vicinity of Southern Ilocos Sur around 8 AM Saturday morning.

Important Note: Residents of Metro Manila must be aware of the possible shift of its track slightly to the west which could bring its core closer to the metropolis between 7 to 8 PM tonight. Please take all necessary precautions.

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 11:00 AM PhT today, May 15…0300 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over Macalelon, Quezon (near 13.8°N 122.2°E), about 65 km east-southeast of Tayabas City, Quezon or 150 km southeast of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Eastern Laguna-Northern Quezon Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Over Real and Infanta, Quezon, between 7 to 8 PM local time tonight – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Mindoro and Marinduque – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Northern part of Bondoc Peninsula, Eastern Southern Quezon, Eastern Laguna, Northern Quezon – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Bicol Region including Masbate, Ticao & Burias Islands, Samar Provinces, Aurora, and Quezon – Today.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Just along the southernmost part of Ilocos Sur…weakened into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)about 36 km NNE of San Fernando City, La Union [8AM May 16: 16.9°N 120.5°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY MORNING: Just along NW Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the western part of Balintang Channel…weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS), as it starts to recurve towards the NEabout 235 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM May 17: 20.5°N 119.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Accelerates NE-ward across the East Taiwan Sea…undergoes Extratropical Transition…about 177 km ENE of Taitung, Taiwan [8AM May 18: 23.4°N 122.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 380 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 30 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri May 15, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 13.8°N Lat 122.2°E Lon
Distance 1:  63 km NE of Boac, Marinduque
Distance 2: 65 km W of Ragay, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 82 km W of  Sipocot, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 110 km W of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 228 km SE of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.9°N 120.5°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.5°N 119.6°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.4°N 122.7°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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