Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 13





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

VONGFONG (AMBO) has weakened rapidly into a Category 1 Typhoon, with winds of only 120 km/hr…now over the northern part of Burias Island as it maintained its west-northwest track…endangering Quezon Province particularly Bondoc Peninsula. Its eyewall has become loose and is currently affecting Burias Island and coastal areas of San Andres, Mangero, and Pagsangahan (Quezon).  

24-hr Outlook: TY VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to weaken further as it turns northwestward @ 19 km/hr across Bondoc Peninsula this morning. It will then make landfall along San Andres or Pagsangahan, Quezon between 7 to 9 AM today, and will be in the vicinity of Calauag or Lopez, Quezon around 2 PM this afternoon. Thereafter, another landfall is expected along Dingalan Bay, Aurora between 10-11 PM tonight. Vongfong (Ambo) shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) once it crosses Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija. At 2 AM tomorrow morning, it shall be in the vicinity of Mount Real, Nueva Ecija. 

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 15…2100 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over Northern Burias Island (near 13.0°N 123.0°E), about 48 km southeast of San Andres, Burias Island or 62 km south of Pasacao, Camarines Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Bondoc Peninsula-Lopez-Calauag (Quezon) Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Over Bondoc Peninsula, between 7 to 10 AM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.

:: Over Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Area between 8 to 11 PM local time tonight – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Bicol Region & Quezon including Polillo Island – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Northern part of Ragay Gulf, Burias Island, Bondoc Peninsula – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Bicol Region including Masbate, Ticao & Burias Islands, Samar Provinces, Aurora, and Quezon – Today.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Mount Real, Nueva Ecija as it moves NNW-ward across Central & Northern Luzon…weakened into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)about 24 km NNW of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija [2AM May 16: 16.0°N 120.9°E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the western part of Balintang Channel…weakens into a weak Tropical Storm (TS) as it starts to recurve NNE-wardabout 142 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM May 17: 19.3°N 119.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates NE-ward across Taiwan Sea, and strengthens slightly as it undergoes Extratropical Transition…about 155 km E of Taitung, Taiwan [2AM May 18: 22.5°N 122.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri May 15, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 13.0°N Lat 123.0°E Lon
Distance 1:  57 km SW of Nabua, Camarines Sur
Distance 2: 65 km SW of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 82 km W of  Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 70 km SSW of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 273 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.0°N 120.9°E (STS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.3°N 119.7°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.5°N 122.6°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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