Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 12

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TYPHOON VONGFONG (AMBO) UPDATE NO. 12

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

The center of Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) has emerged over the southern part of Ragay Gulf and is now in the vicinity of Ticao Pass. Its eyewall continues to pound Sorsogon and Ticao Island with typhoon-force winds and heavy to intense rainfall. 

24-hr Outlook: TY VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to weaken further as it turns more northwestward across Western coastlines of Albay and Camarines Sur this morning with an increased forward speed of 18 km/hr and shall traverse  Ragay and Del Gallego, Cam Sur; Tagkawayan, Quezon; and Santa Elena-Capalonga, Camarines Norte between 10 AM to 2 PM today. At 8 PM tonight, the center of the typhoon will be over Polillo Island (Quezon). 

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, May 14…1500 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over Ticao Pass (near 12.5°N 124.0°E), about 11 km south of Matnog, Sorsogon or 51 km east-northeast of Masbate City, Masbate.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 145 kph near the center…Gustiness: 180 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Northwest @ 17 kph, towards Western Bicol-Bondoc Peninsula Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Over Pio Duran, Albay between 4 to 5 AM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.

:: Along Ragay-Del Gallego-Tagkawayan Area (Cam Sur/Quezon) between 10 to 11 AM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 

What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Bicol Region & Northern Quezon including Bondoc Peninsula  – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Western Bicol Region & Tagkawayan, Quezon – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Bicol Region including Masbate, Ticao & Burias Islands, Samar Provinces, Aurora, and Quezon – Today.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: In the vicinity of Polillo Islands (Quezon) as it moves NNW-ward…weakened into a Category 1 Typhoonabout 64 km NE of Infanta, Quezon [8PM May 15: 15.2°N 122.0°E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY EVENING: Just along the coast of Ilocos Norte…weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)about 61 km NW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM May 16: 18.6°N 120.2°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Starts to recurve NE-ward across the Bashi Channel, weakens further…about 24 km N of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM May 17: 21.0°N 121.8°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 325 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu May 14, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 12.5°N Lat 124.0°E Lon
Distance 1:  74 km SSE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 119 km SSE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 163 km SE of  Pasacao, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 149 km SE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 393 km SE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.2°N 122.0°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.6°N 120.2°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.0°N 121.8°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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