Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) Update No. 11





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 14 May 2020
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 15 May 2020
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon VONGFONG (AMBO) continues to track westward across Samar Island and has weakened slightly, with its EYE no longer present.  Its eyewall and rainbands continues to lash the island with typhoon-force winds and heavy to intense rainfall. 

24-hr Outlook: TY VONGFONG (AMBO) is forecast to weaken further as it turns northwestward across Western Sorsogon early tomorrow with an increased forward speed of 17 km/hr cutting across the western coastal areas of Albay and Camarines Sur through tomorrow morning. At 2 PM tomorrow afternoon, the typhoon will be just along Western Camarines Norte or between the towns of Capalonga and Santa Elena. 

The Western Trough of TY VONGFONG (AMBO) will continue to bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across parts of Mindanao, Rest of the Visayas, Bicol Region, and Southern Tagalog Provinces including Mindoro tonight & tomorrow.

Where is VONGFONG (AMBO)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 14…0900 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the foothills of Mount Yaua, Samar (near 12.2°N 124.9°E), about 36 km east-northeast of Calbayog City, Samar or 39 km southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center…Gustiness: 190 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 14 kph, towards Northern Samar-Bicol Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) :: Over Matnog, Sorsogon, between 10 to 11 PM local time tonight – with High Strike Probability of 80-90%. 
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected):

>> Bicol Region, Northern & Eastern Samar – Today through Friday (May 15).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

>> Northern Samar, Samar, Northern part of Eastern Samar, Sorsogon, Ticao Is., Albay – Today through Early Friday Morning (May 14-15).

>> Central & Western Parts of Camarines Provinces, Burias Island, Eastern Coast of Bondoc Peninsula (Quezon) – beginning Early Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon (May 15).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Bicol Region including Masbate, Ticao & Burias Islands, Samar Provinces, Aurora, and Quezon – Today through Friday (May 14-15).

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Western Camarines Norte, in between the towns of Capalonga and Sta. Elena as it moves NNW…weakened into a Category 1 Typhoonabout 58 km NW of Ragay, Camarines Sur [2PM May 15: 14.2°N 122.4°E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Abra…weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)about 35 km SSE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM May 16: 17.9°N 120.7°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to recurve NE-ward across the Bashi Channel, weakens further…about 56 km W of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM May 17: 20.8°N 121.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 410 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center.

Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu May 14, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: near 12.2°N Lat 124.9°E Lon
Distance 1:  164 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 154 km E of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 3: 132 km SE of  Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 241 km SE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 492 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.2°N 122.4°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.9°N 120.7°E (TS)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.8°N 121.3°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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