Tropical Depression NIMFA StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIMFA STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 11:45 PM PhT (15:45 GMT) Tuesday 17 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Wednesday 18 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Depression NIMFA newly-formed over the North Philippine Sea, as it moves westward slowly…likely to remain quasi-stationary after 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the small Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W has been drifting slowly eastward across Western Zambales…about 25 km NNE of Iba, Zambales (15.5N 120.0E). This LPA remains weak and is likely to dissipate over land.

The presence of TD NIMFA and LPA 99W will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas tonight and tomorrow.

Where is NIMFA? As of 8:00 PM PhT today, September 17…1200 GMT. The center was located over the Mid-Western Part of the North Philippine Sea [near 20.8°N 128.7°E], about 700 km east of Basco, Batanes or 737 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center, with gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West Slowly, towards Western Part of the North Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The 3-Day Forecast (Sept 18-20) shows TD NIMFA moving WSW at a forward speed of 14 km/hr on Day 1 (Wednesday evening), and could remain quasi-stationary during Day 2 (Thursday evening). On Day 3 (Friday evening), NIMFA will start to accelerate NNE to Northward away from the North Philippine Sea, towards the Southern Islands of Japan. This 3-Day forecast remains at higher uncertainty due to models not agreeing to each other. The Forecast confidences are currently LOW (<35% chance) throughout the forecast period.
  • The presence of TD NIMFA and LPA 99W will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (#Habagat) and bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms (with squalls) across Central and Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Bicol, and Western Visayas for the next 24 hours. Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the occurrence of this weather system.
  • TD NIMFA could exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday, September 21.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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