Tropical Depression 95W StormWatch No. 03




Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 11 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Thursday 12 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook The large Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W has intensified into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it is still outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving northeastward across Western Micronesia.  This depression is expected to enter PAR on Thursday or Friday and turn northwestward towards the Philippine Sea.

Its westernmost Trough will bring rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region and Southern Quezon tonight and through Thursday.

Where is TD 95W? As of 2:00 PM PhT today, September 11…0600 GMT. The center was located over Western Micronesia [near 14.2°N 137.7°E], about 291 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or 1,460 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center, with gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) North-Northeast @ 19 kph, across Western Micronesia.
Forecast Highlights
  • The 3-Day Forecast (Sept 12-14) shows TD 95W becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 24 hours (Day 1), and could track NW at 26 km/hr towards the northeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea. On Day 2 (Friday afternoon), it will be moving across the southern part of the North Philippine Sea maintaining its Northwesterly track; and on Day 03 (Friday afternoon), it will start to turn northward to northeastward along the middle part of the North Philippine Sea…about 731 km East of Basco, Batanes.  This forecast remains at higher uncertainty. The Forecast confidences on this depression will be LOW (<35% chance) throughout the forecast period.
  • No Philippine landfall is expected from this TD, based on the current Global Typhoon Forecast Models.
  • The presence of the depression’s broad Trough and the Westerlies (Westerly Surface Windflow) will bring isolated to scattered to at times widespread rain showers and thunderstorms (with squalls) across Parts of Luzon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and Visayas tonight through Thursday. Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the occurrence of this weather system.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “MARILYN” once it enters PAR.

    The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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