Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 99W STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 25 August 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 26 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook The broad Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W spotted over Western Micronesia has been rapidly moving west-northwestward towards the Philippine Sea, and could enter the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early Monday morning. This low pressure system is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 12 to 24 hours, and could affect Southern and Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) on Tuesday and Wednesday (Aug 27-28) – bringing moderate to heavy to at times extreme rainfall over the area.

LPA 99W is forecast to enhance the Southwesterly Wind flow or the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring scattered to “On-and-Off” rain showers, squalls, and severe thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas including Zamboanga Peninsula beginning late Monday through Wednesday (Aug 26-28).

Where is LPA 99W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 25…0900 GMT. The center was located over the westernmost part of Western Micronesia [near 10.3°N 136.6°E], about 175 km east of PAR or 1,191 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center, with gustiness: 55 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) WNW @ 35 kph, towards Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The 3-Day Forecast (Aug 26-28) shows LPA 99W intensifying into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 12 to 24 hours (Day 1), and will continue to speed up towards the WNW @ 34 kph towards Luzon. On Day 2 (Tuesday afternoon), the depression will pass more or less 100 km north of Bicol Region, and make landfall along the Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Border by early Wednesday morning, and swiftly traverse Central Luzon. On Day 03 (Wednesday afternoon), it will be over the West Philippine Sea as it exits the PAR.  Forecast confidences are currently at HIGH (>65%) on Day 1; MEDIUM (35-65%) on Day 2; and LOW (<35% chance) on Day 3.
  • The presence of this potential Tropical Cyclone is likely to enhance the Southwesterly Windflow or the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring scattered to “On-and-Off” rain showers, gusty winds (or squalls) and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and MiMaRoPa on or before the weekend. Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the occurrence of this monsoon system.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “JENNY” once they upgraded it into a Tropical Cyclone.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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