Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W StormWatch No. 02




Issued at: 5:30 PM PhT (09:30 GMT) Tuesday 10 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Wednesday 11 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W slowly organizing as it remains a very broad system while approaching the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  This weather system may track across the Central and Northern Philippine Sea later this week, and is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring rainy weather across Bicol Region, Visayas and MiMaRoPa in the next few days.
Where is LPA 95W? As of 2:00 PM PhT today, September 10…0600 GMT. The center was located over Western Micronesia [near 11.6°N 135.5°E], about 54 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or 1,101 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center, with gustiness: 55 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West-Southwest @ 08 kph, towards Eastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The 3-Day Forecast (Sept 11-13) shows LPA 95W becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 12 to 36 hours (Day 1), and will track NW at 13 km/hr across the eastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea. On Day 2 (Thursday afternoon), it will be approaching the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea maintaining its Northwesterly track; and on Day 03 (Friday afternoon), it will start to turn northward entering the southern portion of the North Philippine Sea…about 725 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes.  This forecast remains at higher uncertainty. The Forecast confidences on this LPA remains  at MEDIUM (35-65%) on Day 1; LOW (<35% chance) on Days 2 and 3.
  • The presence of this LPA plus its broad Trough is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (#Habagat) and bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms (with squalls) across Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and Visayas later this week. Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the occurrence of this weather system.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “MARILYN” once it enters PAR and upgraded it into a Tropical Cyclone.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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