Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 95W STORMWATCH NO. 01

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 09 September 2019
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Tuesday 10 September 2019
Current Status and Outlook A large and developing Tropical Disturbance (LPA) tagged as 95W was spotted over Western Micronesia and is showing signs of consolidating into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next couple of days.  This weather system may pose a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon later this week and could also further enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring wet weather across the western sections of the country.
Where is LPA 95W? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 09…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Western Micronesia [near 12.5°N 139.5°E], about 489 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or 1,663 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center, with gustiness: 55 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 28 kph, towards Western Micronesia.
Forecast Highlights
  • The 3-Day Forecast (Sept 10-12) shows LPA 95W becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 24 to 48 hours (Day 1 to 2), and will remain almost stationary over Western Micronesia. On Day 2 (Wednesday afternoon), it will be approaching the eastern border of PAR, with a WNW track towards the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea; and on Day 03 (Thursday afternoon), it will be well inside PAR, or over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 681 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes.  This forecast remains at higher uncertainty due to models not agreeing to each other. The Forecast confidences are currently at MEDIUM (35-65%) on Day 1; LOW (<35% chance) on Days 2 and 3.
  • The presence of this large disturbance and the Monsoon Trough is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (#Habagat) and bring scattered to occasional rain showers and thunderstorms (with squalls) across MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and the western sections of Visayas later this week. Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the occurrence of this weather system.
  • It will be named locally by PAGASA as “MARILYN” once it enters PAR and they upgraded it into a Tropical Cyclone.
  • The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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